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I've done a preliminary analysis of the Florida results based on data available from http://election.dos.state.fl.us/index.html and I've not seen a hint of evidence of foul-play.  The Republicans just plain brought out more voters.  Read below the fold for pictures and details.

I think this suggests that we should let the BlackBoxVoting.org people follow up on this, but as a community Kossians need to move on to why liberalism itself is so weak right now.

Using data avaiable from the Florida Elections website, I calculated the difference between the fraction of votes bush and kerry received per county compared to the fraction of dem or rep registered voters in each county.  The sequoia e-vote machines are highlighted in yellow.  There is no correlation between bush advantage and e-vote counties.  This is not evidence that there was nothing wrong, but it is enough to say that if there were manipulations they were not obvious and without precinct level data a strong enough statistical correlation cannot be made.

Higher numbers indicate that the candidate overperformed relative to his registration numbers.  Kerry did best in some of the e-vote counties.  Without very solid exit poll data this avenue of spatially matching evote counties with results can go no further.

ES&S Touchscreen
ES&S Touchscreen Update: Here is a picture of the Diebold Machine distribution with bush vote percentage - republican registration percentage highlighted. Here there are a few outliers, but they do not really suggest voting machine problems. Also, see the plot in comments below for a comparison of machine, voter deviation and county population. It further suggests that the machines perform similarly, or at least not detectably differently. Diebold GEMS Optical Scan

Originally posted to anthonares on Thu Nov 04, 2004 at 09:33 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  recommend this diary (none)
    Having done research on election stuff I know alot of work goes into it.

    It's good for us in the reality-based community to have a reality-based discussion about this topic.

    Just b/c they didn't cheat doesn't invalidate the need for verifiable voting. The potential for cheating is an unacceptable risk.

  •  Actually, any "cheating" (none)
    occurred prior to voting, when registration forms were being "misplaced." The other major problem--lots of people responded to the campaign for a paper trail by requesting absentee ballots, but too late to receive them in time (without actually going to the SOE office in person to pick them up and return them). When the ballots were first printed, the SOE's offices were tied up filling all the Republican requests which came in over the summer, responded to Independent and Democrat's requests much later (and more slowly, due to reduced staffing).
  •  Hillsborough County (none)
    We have Sequoia touch screens, but aren't highlighted on your map.  You might want to double-check that part of your work.  Also, Miami-Dade has ES&S touch screens, but they aren't highlighted either.  Those two jumped out at me right away, I didn't check the rest of them.
  •  More Issues to Address than Black Box (none)
    As another poster suggests, there are more issues here than just a question of whether black boxes are recording a vote correctly, or being manipulated in some other manner.  The Diebold, or paperless, machines need to be address definitely.

    But, I am very concerned with all the other activities, illegal in most cases, that are the result of Republican intervention or influence in the election process.  I think many citizens are caught between a rock and a hard place.  Request absentee ballot, never get it.  Send absentee ballot in, it gets lost.  Don't request an absentee ballot, go to polls for a 6 hour wait, or 6 hour wait AND get harrassed.  Don't make it to polls bc you received a direct mail which has already intimadated you into not showing up.

    A.-Challengers who challenge just to prevent voters from voting, with no real knowledge, you do more than just dismiss case.  FElony conviction, possible jail time, court costs, and HEAVY fines.

    B.-Use of the mail system to fraudulently challenge valid, registered voters-felony conviction, heavy fine.  Use of USPS to send out direct mail for purpose of voter intimidation, felony conviction, HEAVY fine-can't find the person, fine the party-in that case, even HEAVIER corporate fine against 527 or party.

    •  Very Good Point (none)
      You're right, the Diebold GEMS tabulators need addressing.  All I've addressed is the ES&S E-votronic Systems.  The remaining counties use a combination of optical scan with some central tabulation.
  •  Ohio? Other states? (none)
    I don't see how you can say that the election wasn't stole electronically with a third of the country voting on electronic machines with no paper trail.  Just checking Florida is not enough.  The election came down to Ohio.  And what if there was tweaking--a few %'s here, a few %'s there--in OTHER states?  Just enough to turn a few of them, and make it come down to Ohio.  

    These electronic systems are highly insecure and penetrable.  The fraud may not have been done generally; it may not have been done in Florida; and it was clearly a multi-pronged effort involving different kinds of dirty tricks and vote theft (purges of black voters from the voting rolls, etc.).

    We not only need an analysis of all no paper trail voting, but a comprehensive investigation of all voter suppression efforts, and how they may have worked together, and  complemented each other, to steal the election.

    There is getting to be a general impression that the election was stolen--Politburo media to the contrary notwithstanding.  People feel it just doesn't add up.  Too many people know people who voted Bush in '00 and switched to Kerry in '04.  Too many people know people who never voted before angry at Bush and voting for the first time to oust him.  Too many people saw those long voting lines in Dem and minority districts, or Repub districts half full of Kerry signs.  Too many people know the all-out, successful nature of this Dem voter registration and GOTV campaign.  The result smells to high heaven.

    •  Ohio analysis needed (none)
      Yes, I agree that Ohio analysis and other states are needed.  I did not say it wasn't stolen, I just said that there isn't anything other than anecdotal evidence for it.  If they did alter votes they did so in a way that is completely undetectable. Here's a plot to show what mean.

      Obviously I haven't done any demographic analysis here, but if there were detectable large-scale fraud with one type of machine, then the three types of machines would likely exhibit different distributions.  I'm just saying that there is no glaring evidence, that's all.

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